A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
